When you read about driverless cars ... it is hard to not get excited. However, it is easy to forget just how long the commercialisation period takes*.
We have been at the stage where driverless technology is "so obviously the future" for a few years now... but we have a bit further to go. Despite the record levels of capital going into tech and yes that does speed things up, I would be surprised if driverless cars were popular in Australia before >2030 (I hope I am wrong). To anecdotally explain my point, you only need to look at other technological adoption.
The peak of 'classified' newspaper advertising in Australia was 2006...10 years after eBay was founded and 7 years after Gumtree (or even Trademe) was founded
Evidently, driverless cars & eBay are two very different technologies and yes tech is moving more quickly these days, however, it is a useful (yet mildly depressing) anecdote to remember how long it takes the world to adopt great technology.
So, where are we at with those driverless cars?
This month it was announced that Google-owned Waymo is rolling out driverless cars in San Francisco. This project, which started a decade ago, seemed to have stalled in 2017 after it tested prototypes in small numbers in Phoenix. So needless to say, the larger San Francisco testing is a major milestone.
Tesla's driverless car appears to be further off. Whilst Musk seems to consider their next prototype (beta 9.3) will level the playing field with Waymo after a lukewarm beta 9.2
It is likely that Tesla's timetable for delivery will be customarily aggressive however in terms of 'test of concept' 4Q'21 will be the biggest quarter for driverless cars we have ever seen.
Once these incremental battles are won, there remain various regulatory hurdles, however IDTech conservatively forecast show driverless cars will equal human levels of safety by 2024.
Conclusion A minimum of Level 4 automation has been the shorter-term goal for Tesla/Waymo and this quarter is the point of inflection for achieving this. There are companies such as Seeing Machines which will also help this cause but testing/regulation milestones are the ones to watch
How about air taxis?
On 12 April'21, Lilium $3.3bn went public via a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) called Qell Acquisition Company.
For those yet to see these amazing creations - the Lilium Jet is a prototype five-seat German electric vertical take-off and landing electrically powered airplane designed by Lilium GmbH.
This deal gave Lilium a significant cash injection towards commercialization. Also promising, there is plenty of other such companies getting funding from the VC space.
Then on 6 August, Lilium signed a $US1 billion deal to sell 220 of its 7-seat electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) jet to Brazilian airline Azul, in what will be the beginnings of a country-wide eVTOL network expected to kickstart in 2025.
Whilst Brazil is one of the world’s leading civilian helicopter and business aviation markets, making it an important market for Lilium.
If Brazil is locking in the supply of civilian helicopters by 2025, Australia needs to consider how it could position itself to achieve something similar in 5-7 years
There is a high level of uncertainty around the commercial opportunity for electric air mobility services. At some point there will be a call for zero-emission solutions that reduce road traffic/air pollution.
Conclusion: In terms of who will bring air taxi tech to Australia, analysts believe that Ehang will be the first to commercialise, and Lilium and Joby likely have the best technology/funding to win the race for this market.
*For the layman it might seem weird that it takes so long. For those working directly on projects like Lilium, Waymo etc. I am sure they can point to the countless prototyping and +100 hour weeks and give you a fair indication why it takes time
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