This is not investment advice and is general in nature. Do your own research before taking any positions in the securities listed below. You should consider your financial situation and goals before making investment decisions.
$GMG – Look at the incentives before you look at profits
For property fund managers, it is important to understand the Cap Rates, Rent Reversion and Development WIP within the business. Nonetheless, for the $GMG result my main takeaway was a lot simpler:
$GMG staff are well incentivised to hit their LTIP
$GMG’s non-standard reporting makes it hard to understand what underlying funds/projects/economies are delivering in terms of fees
$GMG’s Consensus FY27 earnings is 10% below the LTIP level
My guess is that $GMG management will achieve maximum LTIP (because otherwise, they would not have set this hurdle in the first place) and so DM/IM fee growth is understated.
I do not consider $GMG a screaming “Buy” given it is trading at material premiums to Prologis, Capitaland and ESR. However, given FY27 Consensus earnings are below their Max LTIP - I think consensus estimates will lift from here
Also - whilst the PFs for $GMG remain fairly in-tack, it is important to look into the unrecognised PFs these managers are carrying
Peer example #1: CNI has had a big drop in their embedded PF
$NCK - Yes margins may stay high but working capital is abnormally lean
The focus on their most recent results was a) +8% LFL Jul'23 trading, b) >63% margins and c) property valued at cost less accum dep'n.
However, the issue is that their working management has been lean vs. long-run averages
Joel Greenblatt talks about the concept of “negative inventory divergence” – the concept of buying a retailer when the inventory levels are at the worst levels
Whilst $NCK’s performance has been particularly strong – I think buying $NCK at the slimmest inventory levels they have seen in a while is not a prudent time to hop in
$ORG - EIG's getting the jewel. Brookfield's getting the undervalued part Understandably, most people have lost interest in $ORG recently due to the carve-up, these results got less interest than otherwise.
The key items I focus on when looking at $ORG results are g 1) Are there any unknowns for APLNG 2) Will their retail business be squeezed and 3) How has the Kraken business been performing?
Item #1 (APLNG) – The anticipated cost of production at APLNG FY23 was A$3.90/GJ (lower end of the range) whilst production was on par with consensus production. In short - APLNG's earning have been cracking but the market knows this.
tem #2 (Retail) – There has been a record number of retailers going broke in the last 6-12 months according to AER. These precede ideal operating environment for $ORG
Item #3 -The lesser known part; Octopus & Kraken
Whilst you could be forgiven for thinking the recent funding rounds placed ridiculous values (i.e. $ORG's valuation of 20% share = $1.27bn). However,the facts are
Octopus leant-in on recent client customer acquisition (e.g. buying Bulb's book after it went under) and latest estimates show a 35 million total client book
Retention of customers, once you put customers on this technology, is quite high because it maximises their energy uses vs. peak periods
It is now cash flow positive (i.e.generating A$197m EBITDA this year so 6.5x EBITDA no longer looks ridiculous
Generally - I think the Kraken business is complicated - particularly the software piece. But as you can see - if Kraken can run-rate 35 million clients off the same COGS and Admin expense - it will generate a stable return for $ORG
$AZJ - Coopers Investors (Brunswick fund) are a fan at this price, however, growth will be tepid
My thoughts are that there are one-off items suppressing the share price
Weather: 2023 results were hurt by bad weather
Franking Credits: Improved tax efficiencies mean that they will not be paying full franking credits which will make it less popular with investors
Interest costs: Higher than-expected interest costs have hurt immediate NPAT (albeit the hedge longer-term base and duration risk)
Generally, I consider there is an above-average chance that the following happens:
Short term upside: $6.7bn Mkt Cap is TOO cheap for $500m run-rate earnings
Long-term: I consider it likely that the following will happen:
Network services still be highly regulated (more than something like $DBI)
Coal will become a stranded assets
$AZJ won't take over PacNat's containterised niche
The market will generally accurately value the business
So on this - the share price pressure has been appealing and there are of course riskier assets to buy, however, I am yet to fully appreciate the basis for Cooper's investment but it's worth monitoring it.
$OCL - Stickiness is up, growth is down
For this one - I would recommend you jump on https://arichlife.com.au/ for their write-up because they have covered it better
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