Why should I care about what's happening in private markets?
Cobalt/MS came out with a report on global private markets (PE, VC & Private Infrastructure). Why should the average Aussie punter care about this... well I think the main reasons are
Private markets compete with the sharemarket for capital/IPOs
Your super is probably invested in private infra or private assets so it may be worth keeping an eye on how they perform
It is a useful bellwether of how the economy is going
Give me the helicopter pitch - what are the takeaways?
Private markets outperformed the public (share shifting from 5.6% to 7.3%) so before you go bet the farm on PE stocks (e.g. BX, KKR) remember it has been a very hot run
Boring infrastructure remains underfunded, so the outlook remains strong (albeit lowish than shares). Interestingly, there is a bigger difference between a "good" infra manager and a "bad" one - so always check that before you invest
With such high multiples, typical buyout funds have been a smaller part of the market. This has been replaced by pre-IPO/growth funds who do well when IPOs are strong
Whilst the total amount of spare cash (dry powder) is high in $ terms, it is low on % terms... understandably existing funds are experiencing FOMO and raising $ at the same time
Private markets have had a great run (off a small base)
Buyout funds have raised heaps of cash waiting for cheaper purchases
Infra retains are steady but your manager matters...
LBOs are paying more but also using less debt vs. pre-GFC
The pre-IPO market (growth) space is so hot right now
Non-VC players are increasingly getting involved in VC because of favourable tech valuation. Pleasingly - growth in VC is happening outside of US too
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