Whilst we all know that the share markets go up & down, the more interesting question is how often do we get a severe fall?
Using the median of the S&P dataset - you might assume we get a 15% drawdown every year (c.345 days) and this fall (peak-to-trough) takes say 3 months to happen; with the majority of the fall happening in the initial days. The data set is set out below
If it crashes quite often - why should I bother investing then?
Well, the Aussie market (ASX) has been going for c.146 years. Since inception - market (dividends plus share prices) have risen 117 years and declined 29 years; essentially meaning that 1-in-5 years the market has a net loss, and the remainder of the time it wins.
Contextualizing this with the US data above (which the ASX fairly closely follows)
Within any year - it is highly likely the share market will have a +10% drop. However, over time, there is a 70-80% chance you will have a positive year.
*Note these figures are stated gross of inflation which was c.3.9% p.a. between 1979 and 2020
Can I effectively jump in/out of the market?
Since everyone's market skill level differs, go ahead and implement whichever strategy suits you. For some people, I am sure that works
However, Schroders have analyzed the return of the Australian market since inception of the All Ordinaries and the odds are with you as time goes on.
One other thing to bear in mind
If COVID-19 has taught us anything, averages & simplistic forecasting is a sure-fire way to be wrong.
With new phenomenon's like High-frequency trading or even Block chain use for IPOs, there are so many reasons why what worked yesterday could not work tomorrow.
Nonetheless, whatever the future brings us, the chances are that if you buy ordinary companies and try to trade them for the short term... you'll probably lose.
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