This is not investment advice. Do your own research before taking a position in any of the securities mentioned in the post below. The author may hold positions in any of the securities mentioned.
Even though they operate in a broadly similar space (gambling) the investment thesis for Jumbo Interactive (JIN) and Points Bet (PBH) could not be more different.
On one had there is JIN:
Generates stable positive net cash flow in the smaller Aussie/Pacific market and has slowly expanded into UK (via Cherwell)
Meets all the typical financial tests – 30% margin, 40% ROCE, stable 10-15% revenue growth helped via its 15yr agreement with Tabcorp
Limited need for additional fundraising & limited debt
Limited ownership by the founder and large stake held by Tatts (noting Tabcorp has sold out)
Then there is PointsBet
Capacity to win big in the deregulation of the US sports betting market .
Sure it has c.200 active users in Aus (vs. 900 for JIN) but the US is the big prize
Undertaken several big equity capital raisings - and will need to do more (expected to be loss making for+3 years)
As US deregulation occurs – they are rapidly taking on new operations in new states
They have 7 states now: New Jersey, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan and West Virginia.
Their founders still have a driving force in the company
Overall, if you happy with the risk of extreme gains/losses, PBH makes a lot of sense
PBH is chasing the US sports wagering market which brokers forecast has a Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $50bn (and Canadian market C$3bn)
They already have c.10% stake in the states they operate in, and more states are likely to deregulate their sports betting industry
They are winning key contracts in iGaming and NBCUniversal, to level the playing field with their peers
In short – there is a war going on for the US sports betting market and the winner will take most. To win, will require burning heaps of cash to win active users.
If that winner is PBH; you will profit handsomely. If not – PBH’s aggressive cash burning will almost certainly end in material loss.
Conversely, JIN will continue to have a captive market (a minimum for its 15yr deal with Tabcorp) and is taking minimal risk with its expansion to UK. Of course, JIN is unlikely to “shoot the lights out” by only operating in the small Aussie market (nor is super cheap at 35x P/E) but it does offer smaller/stable cash flows.
It all boils down to what type of punt you want to make.
Comments