This is not investment advice. Do your research before taking a position in any of the securities mentioned in the post below.
Today's article covers Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI). Appreciating the port has exposure to met coal (potentially not aligning with others ESG ethos); I would encourage you to read the whole note to better understand the purpose of listed infrastructure and how DBI can grow over time
Exec summary
Set out below, I think anyone buying DBI today may be subject to poor FY22 NPAT results (e.g. 20% share price drawdown; which is high for infrastructure) due to high debt costs (unused and unhedged component) and a lukewarm regulatory review. That being said, the growth in Mtpa from 8X expansion and favourable entry yield means that it is attractive in the long term. Finally - due to the low growth profile; I would not make this <5% of my portfolio even in an inflationary environment
Before I start on DBI's business, some general rules around investing in listed infrastructure
When you look at pure-play infrastructure, generally they should NOT make up the majority of your portfolio because the capital return is too low & they are efficiently priced. Notwithstanding this; I like to have a small allocation where the yield is sufficient
These businesses are really BORING and understandably are not appealing to most retail investors.
Even if you try to "juice-up" your returns by getting a margin loan over the stock (e.g. borrow 5% all-in cost) most of your return (e.g. DBI at 9%) is paid away in interest and the extra leverage is not worth it
Most Aus listed infrastructure has been subject to takeovers because of the spread between retail investors cost of capital (high) and sovereign/infra funds cost of capital (low) means that retail investors generally do not properly value these assets.
I do not consider a takeover likely for DBI given Brookfield/QIC's cornerstone holding would block a potential bid
So what is DBI?
Port explanation: DBI is a semi-regulated metallurgical coal terminal located in Mackay on a 99-year lease (c.79yrs remaining including DBIs 50yr option at 2049).
DBI port Structure Process from mine to export
For the purpose of this analysis, I have not got too carried away with the leasehold term because the difference between 79yrs & freehold is not very significant and there are other more pertinent risks
Function: The asset provides port services off the Goonyella rail, which some estimate provides a c.$3/tonne saving for coal exports in the region. Additionally, these stats change over time but Bowen Basin is well located to sell to China/India
Coal price risk: The business has minimal exposure to coal prices because they operate under a take or pay structure
Fully contracted 84.2Mtpa from July 2022 to June 2028 on a 100% take-or-pay basis with evergreen renewal options.
Users of the port: 6 of 17 user users account for c.90% of contracted tonnage. These include: Anglo American, BMC, Fitzroy Resources, Glencore, Middlemount South and Peabody (Rio Tinto has sold out of coal)
Cap structure: DBI have favourable debt terms - reset its interest rate swap book for the next five years (executed $1.45bn at 0.857% pa fixed) delivering a cost-saving. Interestingly, they have "over-raised" so they have the capacity to undertake bigger capex works using this cheaper debt
What do I consider are the key risks?
Capex requirements: The prospect for further expansion is completely necessary for this port. Nonetheless, this has a two-fold impact (lower cash distribution and increased debt/equity tied up). Note - any expansion of DBI is subject to capacity being available in the rail network managed by Aurizon Network. This is for the 8X ($1.2b/13mtpa) and 9X ($3.5bn/38mtpa)
Hydrogen: Similar to expansion - this is a necessary change. However, there are operational risks attached to DBI's plans to export green hydrogen from Hay Point (Mackay) per their MOU with Qld Govt, Brookfield, and ITOCHU
Regulation: DBCT recently went from heavy-handed to light-handed legislation. There are two issues with this
It is not clear how their direct pricing negotiations will go
After 5-years, the regulatory framework can change the return DBI is allowed to achieve could change
Competition: Production is c.200mtpa in QLD with the below competitors having a capacity of 290mtpa. Whilst this suggests we're oversupplied, the issue is DBI arguably has a better location than some of the Rockhampton/Bowen ports and many miners take more capacity than they need
Force Majeure: This is quite minimal for this area, excluding some risk for cyclones with some/minimal insurance coverage
Counterparty risk: In the last 20yrs, no customers have missed payment. Plus management forecast almost all of the contracts are expected to be renewed
What do DBI's financials look like
P&L: The FY22 outlook looks quite ordinary because DBI has drawn more debt than they need (albeit at much cheaper rates). By 2023, when more capacity is constructed by - handling income will increase
CF: Generally - most of the cash after AFFO (EBITDA-debt-capex) is swept out as dividends like most infra assets
Valuation: Currently - DBI pays out a 9% dividend yield and trades at 14x EBITDA.
Conclusion:
There are many factors that suggest this was an overvalued IPO, hence why Brookfield reduced their pricing from $2.57 to $2.10, but I would say most of the value lies within the following factors
The asset is not coupled with operating coal mines which take commodity risk
There is a queue for its expansionary capacity and they have already raised sufficient debt to at least fund part of 8X (subject to Aurizon proceeding)
Loading costs are cheaper than WICET and arguably their location is superior to some other offerings
When should you invest? I think FY22 earnings will be quite poor because DBI "over-raised" debt, their 8X capacity won't be online until 2023 onwards and the regulatory changes do not really help it in the short run.
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